DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/20 11:38
Corn Mixed; Soybeans, Wheat Lower at Midday
Corn is near unchanged, while soybeans and wheat are lower at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher at midday with the Dow up 85 points. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 25 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude 0.70 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are lower with gold down $11.90.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade trying to establish
support after the upside recovery on Friday. Ethanol margins are stable to
softer with energies weaker to start the week, with demand likely to bump up
this week for Thanksgiving travel. Basis and carry have shown further
improvement with carry trading at 11 1/2 cents this morning. Remaining harvest
is struggling with poor drying conditions this week, but we are near the end
overall with the weekly report expected to be past 90%. The weekly export
inspections remain soft, at 632,793 metric tons. On the December chart, support
is at the new low at $3.36 1/2. Resistance is at the $3.48 3/4 50-day moving,
then the $3.58 six-week high.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade trying to
consolidate the gains from Friday. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 45 to
55 points lower. South American weather looks to add some rain in Argentina in
the dry areas near term, with overall issues remaining limited. Export business
has been quiet for the bulk of November on the daily wire, which has raised
some concern. The weekly report should show harvest effectively complete. The
weekly export inspections remained solid at 2.131 million metric tons. India
increased palm oil duties, which are weighing on world veg oil prices. On the
January chart, prices got back above all the major moving averages, with the
20-day at $9.86, the first level of support, which we are just above at midday,
and the recent high at $10.08, the next level of resistance.
Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower at midday with choppy trade continuing
near the lower end of the range. Dryness is a concern that is limiting downside
on the winter wheat contracts, but that has not translated into more aggressive
short-covering. If the row crops can put together some momentum, it should
start to increase short-covering in wheat, but that has faltered so far. The
weekly crop conditions are expected to be steady to lower with planting pretty
well wrapped up. Export inspections were soft at 259,264 metric tons. The
Russian ruble weakness recently helped Russian competitiveness on the world
market, with business to the Middle East marked by continued steady cash trade.
Basis has firmed a bit on the Plains in recent days but, overall, remains wide.
On the December KC, support is the $4.13 1/2 low, with the 10-day and 20-day at
$4.25, as resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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