DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/15 11:14
Grains Lower at Midday
We have lower trade across the board at midday after some brief higher trade
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 250. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 11 points higher.
Energies are sharply lower with crude down 2.40. Livestock trade is firmer.
Precious metals are weaker with gold 15.00 lower.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back slightly from
the gains seen on Tuesday. Two-sided action was seen, but when outside markets
turned negative and soybeans turned lower, corn saw spillover pressure from
them. The weather forecast looks fairly mild in the near term. The weekly
ethanol report showed production down 28,000 barrels per day, with stocks up
94,000 barrels. Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more harvest
activity building with the advanced crop. The export wire has been more active
in recent days with exporters covering more near-term needs with 55,000 metric
tons old crop, and 59,472 of new crop sold to unknown. On the September chart,
futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.49, and resistance the
20- and 50-day at $3.62.
Soybean trade is 6 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade dipping after the
early week strength as demand concerns move back to the forefront along with
mild weather. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower, and oil is 45 to 55 points lower.
The weather forecast has drifted wetter for all but the northwest part of the
belt. Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the slow start to
export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Early planting in South
America will begin next month with much of Brazil on the dry side at the
moment, but it is too early to provide much excitement one way or another. On
the September chart, trade has support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.40 and
resistance the 20-day at $8.75.
Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents lower with trade falling back to the lows after
early day session strength as traders focus on nearby supply and slow export
demand for the U.S. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather
returning this week with harvest expanding. Yields are mixed so far. The strong
U.S. dollar is keeping the U.S. less competitive on the world market in the
near term with the ongoing issues. Matif wheat is flat to lower, as well, with
trade drifting below last week's highs. Australia remains on the dry side with
the crop pace ahead of normal, as well, with some relief for some areas. On the
September KC, we are have support at the 100-day at $5.33 and resistance the
20-day at $5.47.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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