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Market Matters Blog           07/29 15:29

   Spring Wheat Tour Scouts Calculate Final 2021 All Spring Wheat Yield at 28.9 
BPA

   The Wheat Quality Council 2021 wheat tour left Devils Lake, North Dakota, 
Thursday, with scouts spreading out across the state as they headed back to 
Fargo to determine the final results of the 2 1/2-day tour. Their final 
calculated all spring wheat yield came in at 28.9 bushels per acre, the lowest 
yield estimate since 2008.

Mary Kennedy
DTN Basis Analyst

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Scouts finished off the Wheat Quality Council 2021 spring 
wheat and durum tour late Thursday morning, ending the day at the National 
Crops Institute in Fargo, North Dakota, for the final tour discussion. The 
final tour yield for all spring wheat was calculated at 28.9 bushels per acre 
(bpa) with hard red spring wheat at 29.1 bpa over 257 samples drawn and durum 
wheat yields at 24.3 bpa over 15 samples.

   This was the tour's lowest calculated yield for both crops since 2008. That 
year, hard red spring wheat yield was calculated at 31.7 bpa, durum at 23.3 bpa 
and all wheat at 31.3 bpa.

   Comparing this year's results to the most recent previous tour, the final 
totals over the same routes in 2019 were calculated at 43.1 bpa for hard red 
spring wheat and 32 bpa for durum for an all spring wheat total of 42.6 bpa. 
The tour was canceled in 2020 because of the pandemic.

   For Day Three of this year's tour, scouts estimated the average calculated 
yield at 35.4 bushels per acre (bpa) for hard red spring wheat with 62 samples 
drawn. No durum fields were sampled Thursday. This was down from 2019's Day 
Three estimate of 48.6 bpa for HRS wheat.

   Charlie Vogel told DTN that he drove on the yellow route Thursday, crossing 
over into Minnesota. "The nine fields on my route showed excellent quality, but 
yields varied from 18 bpa to 38 bpa and a 55 bpa field north of Crookston, 
Minnesota."

   Vogel said that, from what he had seen and heard prior to the tour, 
including what he saw during the tour, "We actually have a good-quality crop of 
decent test weight and excellent protein. This drought has certainly stressed 
our wheat crop this year, but there is a difference between a yield hit versus 
a poor-quality hit."

   He added that while yields will be down this year, "We certainly have a 
marketable protein and test-weight crop from the better areas of the states. 
Our farmers have a tough year and need any break they can get."

   One of the biggest questions being asked by the trade is how many abandoned 
acres the tour ran into. The scouts only report what fields they measure to 
determine yield, and just as they drive by harvested fields, they drive by 
abandoned fields, and there is nothing to report from either.

   DTN talked to Darin Jantzi, state statistician, USDA NASS North Dakota Field 
Office, about how abandoned and hayed spring wheat acres would be accounted for 
this year by USDA. He said: "Abandoned wheat acres won't be fully known until 
we collect that data from producers in early September. That is when we collect 
final acreage and production data once the producers have harvested their 
small-grain crops."

   Jantzi added: "As for the hayed acres, the first opportunity for estimates 
to be made on abandoned wheat acres being hayed would be in the October (USD) 
Crop Production report. There is no estimate for hayed grain acres, as they all 
just show up in the 'Other Hay' acreage and yield forecast. The final 'Other 
Hay' estimates would be in the Annual Crops Summary published in January."

   Editor's Note: DTN would like to thank scouts from the North Dakota Wheat 
Commission, Red River Farm Network and the Minnesota Wheat Council for their 
help with comments and numbers from this year's tour.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn




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